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屋顶分布式或成太阳能电站主流

发布时间:2015-09-09 作者:本站编(bian)辑浏览次数:

    日前(qian),国(guo)家发改(gai)委(wei)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研究所、国(guo)家可再(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)中(zhong)心、能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基金会、中(zhong)国(guo)可再(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)学会等多家权威(wei)机构(gou)联合(he)发布(bu)了《中(zhong)国(guo)2050年(nian)高(gao)比(bi)例(li)可再(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)发展情(qing)(qing)景(jing)暨(ji)路(lu)径研究》。这份报告大胆(dan)提(ti)出了一个(ge)关于可再(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的预测情(qing)(qing)景(jing):到2050年(nian),中(zhong)国(guo)的可再(zai)生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)将在能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)费比(bi)例(li)中(zhong)占据60%。
  
    从2014年的不足3%到2050年的60%,这个(ge)数据是否可(ke)信?
  
    太阳能投资(zi)需求十分“饥渴”
  
    目(mu)前在(zai)我国,太(tai)(tai)阳(yang)(yang)能(neng)在(zai)整(zheng)个能(neng)源行(xing)业(ye)所占(zhan)比例最小(xiao),2014年总的(de)发(fa)电(dian)量中,太(tai)(tai)阳(yang)(yang)能(neng)发(fa)电(dian)比例不足0.5%。正因(yin)如此,太(tai)(tai)阳(yang)(yang)能(neng)发(fa)电(dian)或(huo)许是最有(you)发(fa)展前景的(de)可再生能(neng)源领域(yu)。
  
    德国、法(fa)国已经宣布2050年100%使用(yong)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源,而(er)我国由于可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源一直(zhi)以(yi)来利用(yong)率(lv)低,要(yao)达到(dao)60%的比例(li)(li)看起来不容易完成(cheng),但(dan)要(yao)考虑到(dao)太阳能(neng)发电(dian)储能(neng)技术的进步和效率(lv)的提高,可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源的消费比例(li)(li)大幅(fu)度增加并(bing)非难事(shi)。
  
    根据(ju)以上(shang)预测,到2050年(nian),我(wo)国(guo)太阳能发电的装(zhuang)机容量将达到27亿(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。而(er)截至2014年(nian)我(wo)国(guo)太阳能发电装(zhuang)机容量仅有2900万(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa),在未来36年(nian)间,新增装(zhuang)机容量267100万(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa),即使按照每千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)投(tou)资5000元计算,需要总投(tou)资达到133550亿(yi)元,年(nian)均投(tou)资超过3700亿(yi)元。
  
    2014年(nian)我国太阳能装(zhuang)机(ji)容量仅略高于1000万千瓦(wa),而(er)按照2015年(nian)的发(fa)展目(mu)标,未(wei)来36年(nian)期间,年(nian)均装(zhuang)机(ji)容量必(bi)须达到7419万千瓦(wa)才能满足需(xu)求。
  
    由此可见(jian),2050年之前(qian)中国太阳能投(tou)资需求将面临“饥渴式(shi)”的(de)投(tou)资机会,这从近年来太阳能电(dian)站投(tou)资变化分析中可见(jian)端倪。
  
    以年(nian)发电(dian)1500小时(shi)计(ji)算近年(nian)来太(tai)阳能电(dian)站投资变化:2010年(nian)每(mei)千(qian)(qian)瓦需投资20000元,到(dao)2015年(nian)每(mei)千(qian)(qian)瓦投资下降(jiang)(jiang)到(dao)7500元,度电(dian)成(cheng)本由每(mei)千(qian)(qian)瓦时(shi)1.2元降(jiang)(jiang)到(dao)了0.6元,足足降(jiang)(jiang)了一半。
  
    究其原因,这要归结于自2010年以来太阳能电站主要设备的明显变化:60块电池片的组件功率从210瓦提升到了265瓦;组件价格从每瓦15元降低到每瓦4元;光伏逆变器价格从每瓦3元降低到每瓦0.22元。就像在2010年很难估计5年后太阳能设备的价格一样,现在也无法预计2050年太阳能设备价格会降低到什么程度。
  
    投资人应有“火(huo)眼金睛”
  
    基于(yu)对2050年太阳能电站(zhan)发(fa)展的乐(le)观估计,对于(yu)投(tou)资人来(lai)说,要分辨不(bu)同太阳能电站(zhan)的机(ji)会(hui)与(yu)瓶颈,选(xuan)择最具潜力的电站(zhan)进行投(tou)资。地面电站(zhan)和屋顶分布式电站(zhan)是目(mu)前光(guang)伏电站(zhan)投(tou)资的两大类型。
  
    地(di)(di)面电(dian)(dian)站拥有(you)清晰的产(chan)权(quan)而容(rong)易获得金融支持,安装、接(jie)入方(fang)式简(jian)单,只与电(dian)(dian)网(wang)有(you)结算关系,这(zhei)都是其优点,但同(tong)时(shi)地(di)(di)面电(dian)(dian)站存在占用大量土地(di)(di)、补(bu)贴到位时(shi)间长(zhang)等(deng)不足。此(ci)外,地(di)(di)面电(dian)(dian)站还受(shou)电(dian)(dian)改影响较大,由于发电(dian)(dian)侧放开竞(jing)价(jia)上网(wang),光伏(fu)地(di)(di)面电(dian)(dian)站竞(jing)争力严重不足。
  
    屋顶分(fen)布式(shi)电(dian)站(zhan)的缺(que)点则是因(yin)产(chan)权不够(gou)清晰,不容易获得金融支持;安装、接入方式(shi)相对复(fu)杂;结算关系上存在屋顶业(ye)主、投资方和电(dian)网三(san)方关系,业(ye)主有违约风险。但不占用土(tu)地、电(dian)量消纳不受限制(zhi)、首次(ci)补贴到(dao)位(wei)时(shi)间(jian)为一个季度等都是屋顶分(fen)布式(shi)电(dian)站(zhan)的优势(shi),同时(shi),由(you)于是直供(gong)电(dian),屋顶分(fen)布式(shi)电(dian)站(zhan)未来会成为售电(dian)公司(si)的首选。
  
    目前国(guo)外(wai)光(guang)伏电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)的(de)主(zhu)流形(xing)式是(shi)(shi)分布(bu)式电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan),德国(guo)有70%的(de)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)属于(yu)(yu)分布(bu)式,这是(shi)(shi)大势(shi)所趋(qu);地(di)面电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)存在(zai)(zai)储能未(wei)解决(jue)前会(hui)被刚性限电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、未(wei)来(lai)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)改竞价上(shang)网等风险(xian);电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)改之后,由于(yu)(yu)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)侧(ce)放(fang)开(kai)(kai),单纯的(de)光(guang)伏发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)很难生(sheng)(sheng)存,而地(di)面电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)在(zai)(zai)竞价上(shang)网的(de)规则下竞争力是(shi)(shi)最弱的(de)。售电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)侧(ce)放(fang)开(kai)(kai)以后,分布(bu)式发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)是(shi)(shi)售电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)最好的(de)生(sheng)(sheng)存基础,是(shi)(shi)最贴近客(ke)户(hu)服务(wu)的(de)供电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)方式,比(bi)起(qi)地(di)面光(guang)伏电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)来(lai)说(shuo),风险(xian)要(yao)小很多,且(qie)分布(bu)式电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)也为(wei)未(wei)来(lai)节能服务(wu)提供了客(ke)户(hu)入口。
  
    虽然要推动分布式光伏电站的发展,政策层面仍有待完善,但相信在不久的将来,屋顶分布式电站将成为太阳能电站的主流,并在可再生能源消费中占据更大的比例。